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 Given the two near-certain losses in Maryland and Massachusetts, the GOP will need to flip at least two seats to keep their current 28 seats.

Our analysis is based on reporting with dozens of political observers in the states, plus national party officials and a look at historical, demographic and polling data.

In addition to sorting the contests into Safe Republican, Likely Republican, Leans Republican, Toss-up, Leans Democratic, Likely Democratic and Safe Democratic categories, we list the races in descending order, from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic, including within each rating category. (The exceptions are the Safe Republican and Safe Democratic categories, which are listed here alphabetically.) If this analysis is accurate, it should be possible to draw a line in the middle, above which all races went for Republicans and below which all races went for Democrats.

Here’s the full rundown.

Safe Republican (alphabetical by state)

Alabama: Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) vs. Yolanda Flowers (D)

Arkansas: Open seat (Republican Asa Hutchinson is term-limited). Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) vs. Chris Jones (D)

Idaho: Incumbent Gov. Brad Little (R) vs. Stephen Heidt (D)

Iowa: Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Deidre DeJear (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

Nebraska: Open seat (Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts is term-limited). Jim Pillen (R) vs. Carol Blood (D)

New Hampshire: Incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu (R) vs. Tom Sherman (D)

Ohio: Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) vs. Nan Whaley (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

South Carolina: Incumbent Gov. Henry McMaster (R) vs. Joe Cunningham (D)

Tennessee: Incumbent Gov. Bill Lee (R) vs. Jason Martin (D)

t Gov. Greg Abbott (R) vs. Beto O’Rourke (D) (shift from Likely Republican)

Vermont: Incumbent Gov. Phil Scott (R) vs. Brenda Siegel (D and Progressive)

Wyoming: Incumbent Gov. Mark Gordon (R) vs. Theresa Livingston (D)

Likely Republican

Florida: Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D) (shift from Lean Republican)

South Dakota: Incumbent Gov. Kristi Noem (R) vs. Jamie Smith (D)

Alaska: Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) vs. Les Gara (D), Charlie Pierce (R), and Bill Walker (I)

Georgia: Incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D) (shift from Lean Republican)

Lean Republican

Oklahoma: Incumbent Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) vs. Joy Hofmeister (D) (shift from Likely Repub

Arizona: Open seat (Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited) Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D)

Nevada: Incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) vs. Joe Lombardo (R)

Wisconsin: Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) vs. Tim Michels (R)

Oregon: Open seat (Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited). Tina Kotek (D and Working Families), Christine Drazan (R), and Betsy Johnson (I)

Kansas: Incumbent Gov. Laura Kelly (D) vs. Derek Schmidt (R)

Lean Democratic

Michigan: Incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs Tudor Dixon (R)

Minnesota: Incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) vs. Scott Jensen (R)

New Mexico: Incumbent Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) vs. Mark Ronchetti (R)

Maine: Incumbent Gov. Janet Mills (D) vs. Paul LePage (R)