Two seats are expected to switch parties in this year’s election, both of them from Republican to Democratic control. These two states are Maryland and Massachusetts – strongly blue states that have outgoing moderate Republican governors but where Republicans this year nominated candidates aligned with former President Donald Trump, which is a non-starter for most voters in those states.
Beyond those two expected party flips, we see 12 races – one-third of those on the ballot – as being competitive to one degree or another between the parties. In the rest, the party currently in control should be able to win again this year.
One of the competitive contests, in Oklahoma, leans to the Republicans. Six of the races lean to the Democrats: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York and Rhode Island.
Meanwhile, five states are pure toss-ups in our rankings: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Oregon and Wisconsin. Of these five seats, the Democrats currently hold four of them, so Democrats are playing defense in what is already a challenging political environment for the party. Three of these toss-up states – Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin – are also expected to be presidential battlegrounds in 2024. That’s important because the winner of this year’s gubernatorial race is poised to certify the 2024 presidential results in an environment of widespread distrust of how elections are run.
Since month ago, we’ve shifted seven races in the GOP’s direction, while shifting two in the Democrats’ direction.
Five of the states moving in the GOP’s direction involve incumbent governors improving their position: Florida’s Ron DeSantis, Georgia’s Brian Kemp, Iowa’s Kim Reynolds, Ohio’s Mike DeWine and Texas’ Greg Abbott, The other two states moving toward the Republicans are solidly blue states where the Democratic incumbents are looking more wobbly than expected: Kathy Hochul in New York and Dan McKee in Rhode Island.
The two races moving in the Democrats’ direction are Oklahoma, where incumbent Republican Kevin Stitt faces a surprisingly strong challenge from Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister, and Pennsylvania, where Democrat Josh Shapiro leads controversial Republican nominee Doug Mastriano.
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